Climate Change Data Products

CLIMATE CHANGE DATA PRODUCTS

 

Projected future potential bird densities and climate change refugia maps for the boreal region.

Projected Future Bird Densities

Potential densities based on climatic conditions, land use and topography for 80 boreal-breeding songbird species.

Velocity-based macrorefugia for boreal passerine birds

Refugia layers represent mid-century (2041-2070) and end-of-century (2071-2100) conditions for the SRES A2 emissions scenario at 4-km resolution.

Future Density Projections for Waterfowl

Future density projections and climate suitability indices for 12 waterfowl species in eastern Canada.

Predicting current and future abundance of breeding waterfowl across Canada

Predicting current and future abundance of breeding waterfowl across Canada

 

Mapping the abundance and distribution of 18 species of waterfowl in Canada.

Canard pilet. Northern Pintail (Anas acuta). Photo Credit: Robin Besançon

Project Summary

The aim of this project was to develop predictive statistical models for mapping the abundance and distribution of waterfowl species across Canada. This project improves on the Canadian breeding waterfowl models constructed by Barker et al. (2014) by (a) developing new, more interpretable statistical models that (b) explicitly account for spatiotemporal variations in waterfowl abundance, while (c) testing for associations with an updated suite of habitat covariates. Furthermore, as breeding areas are becoming warmer and wetter, climatic changes are likely to affect the distributions of millions of waterfowl. This study also assessed the potential effects of climate change on the distribution and abundance of waterfowl species using a climate envelope modeling approach.

In 2019, a review of the literature was conducted that summarized environmental variables known to affect breeding duck distribution and abundance in northern North America. This review was published in ÉcoscienceFollowing this review, models were built for mapping the spatio-temporal abundance of 18 waterfowl species at a pan-Canadian level over a 25 year period. This work was published in Diversity & Distributions and is available as a data product.

Lastly, this project assessed the potential effects of climate change on the breeding distribution and abundance of 12 common waterfowl species in Eastern Canada. This work was published in Climatic Change in August 2020.

 

Applications

Possible applications of the resulting models and maps include the development and evaluation of biodiversity indicators and conservation planning strategies. See the data products below to use these models and maps. 

 

Project Partners

This project was led by Antoine Adde for his PhD. This research continues an 11-year collaboration between Steve Cumming and Marcel Darveau of Ducks Unlimited Canada to estimate the abundance of waterfowl across Canada and extends BAM’s taxonomic scope to waterfowl.  For more information please contact us. 

Publications

Adde, A., Darveau, M., Barker, N., Cumming, S., 2020. Predicting spatiotemporal abundance of breeding waterfowl across Canada: A Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach. Divers Distrib ddi.13129. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13129

Adde, A., Darveau, M., Barker, N., Imbeau, L., Cumming, S., 2020. Environmental covariates for modelling the distribution and abundance of breeding ducks in northern North America: a review. Écoscience 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/11956860.2020.1802933

Adde, A., Stralberg, D., Logan, T., Lepage, C., Cumming, S., Darveau, M., 2020. Projected effects of climate change on the distribution and abundance of breeding waterfowl in Eastern Canada. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02829-9

Data Products

Canada-wide density
Version 2 (2020): Current density of 18 breeding waterfowl species across Canada using hierarchical generalized linear models.
   
Regional future density
Eastern Canada (2020): Future density projections of the distribution and abundance of breeding waterfowl in Eastern Canada.

Current and Projected future potential boreal bird densities (4-km resolution)

Current and Projected Future Potential Boreal Bird Densities

4-km Resolution

To learn more about this this data product, including the methods,  please visit this page

 

CITATION for this data product:
Stralberg, D., S. M. Matsuoka, A. Hamann, E. M. Bayne, P. Sólymos, F. K. A. Schmiegelow, X. Wang, S. G. Cumming, and S. J. Song. 2015. Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise [Data set]. Ecological Applications. Zenodo. http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3266449

 

PUBLICATION:
Stralberg, D., S. M. Matsuoka, A. Hamann, E. M. Bayne, P. Sólymos, F. K. A. Schmiegelow, X. Wang, S. G. Cumming, and S. J. Song. 2015. Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise. Ecological Applications 25:52-69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/13-2289.1

 

  Species Code     Common name (Scientific name) Current Predictions Future Predictions
 

ALFL    

AMCR    

AMGO    

AMPI    

AMRE    

AMRO    

ATSP    

BAWW    

BBWA    

BCCH    

BHCO   

BHVI    

BLBW   

BLJA   

BLPW    

BOCH    

BRBL    

BRCR    

BTNW    

CAWA    

CCSP    

CEDW    

CHSP    

CMWA   

COGR    

CONW    

CORA    

CORE    

COYE    

CSWA    

DEJU    

EABL

EAKI    

EAPH    

EVGR    

FOSP    

GCFL

GCKI    

GCTH   

GRAJ    

HAFL

HETH    

HOLA    

HOWR

INBU

LCSP   

LEFL   

LISP    

MAWA    

MOWA    

NOCA

NAWA    

NOWA    

OCWA   

OSFL    

OVEN    

PAWA    

PHVI    

PIGR   

PISI    

PIWA

PUFI    

RBGR    

RBNU    

RCKI    

REVI    

RUBL    

RWBL   

SAVS    

SCTA

SEWR

SOSP    

SWSP   

SWTH    

TEWA    

TOWA

TRES    

VATH    

VEER

VESP    

WAVI   

WCSP    

WETA    

WEWP    

WIWA   

WIWR   

WOTH

WTSP    

WWCR    

YBFL   

YRWA    

YTVI

YWAR

Alder Flycatcher (Empidonax alnorum)

American Crow (Corvus brachyrhynchos)

American Goldfinch (Spinus tristis)

American Pipit (Anthus rubescens

American Redstart (Setophaga ruticilla)

American Robin (Turdus migratorius

American Tree Sparrow (Spizella arborea

Black-and-white Warbler (Mniotilta varia)

Bay-breasted Warbler (Setophaga castanea)

Black-capped Chickadee (Poecile atricapillus

Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater)

Blue-headed Vireo (Vireo solitarius)

Blackburnian Warbler (Setophaga fusca)

Blue Jay (Cyanocitta cristata)

Blackpoll Warbler (Setophaga striata

Boreal Chickadee (Poecile hudsonicus)

Brewer’s Blackbird (Euphagus cyanocephalus)

Brown Creeper (Certhia americana

Black-throated Green Warbler (Setophaga virens)

Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis)

Clay-colored Sparrow (Spizella pallida)

Cedar Waxwing (Bombycilla cedrorum)

Chipping Sparrow (Spizella passerina

Cape May Warbler (Setophaga tigrina)

Common Grackle (Quiscalus quiscula)

Connecticut Warbler (Oporornis agilis)

Common Raven (Corvus corax)

Common Redpoll (Acanthis flammea

Common Yellowthroat (Geothlypis trichas)

Chestnut-sided Warbler (Setophaga pensylvanica)

Dark-eyed Junco (Junco hyemalis

Eastern Bluebird (Sialia sialis)

Eastern Kingbird (Tyrannus tyrannus)

Eastern Phoebe (Sayornis phoebe)

Evening Grosbeak (Coccothraustes vespertinus)

Fox Sparrow (Passerella iliaca

Great Crested Flycatcher (Myiarchus crinitus)

Golden-crowned Kinglet (Regulus satrapa

Gray-cheeked Thrush (Catharus minimus

Gray Jay (Perisoreus canadensis

Hammond's Flycatcher (Empidonax hammondii)

Hermit Thrush (Catharus guttatus

Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris

House Wren (Troglodytes aedon)

Indigo Bunting (Passerina cyanea)

Le Conte's Sparrow (Ammodramus leconteii)

Least Flycatcher (Empidonax minimus)

Lincoln's Sparrow (Melospiza lincolnii

Magnolia Warbler (Setophaga magnolia)

Mourning Warbler (Geothlypis philadelphia)

Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis)

Nashville Warbler (Oreothlypis ruficapilla)

Northern Waterthrush (Parkesia noveboracensis

Orange-crowned Warbler (Oreothlypis celata

Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi

Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla)

Palm Warbler (Setophaga palmarum)

Philadelphia Vireo (Vireo philadelphicus)

Pine Grosbeak (Pinicola enucleator

Pine Siskin (Spinus pinus

Pine Warbler (Setophaga pinus)

Purple Finch (Carpodacus purpureus)

Rose-breasted Grosbeak (Pheucticus ludovicianus)

Red-breasted Nuthatch (Sitta canadensis

Ruby-crowned Kinglet (Regulus calendula

Red-eyed Vireo (Vireo olivaceus)

Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus

Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus

Savannah Sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis

Scarlet Tanager (Piranga olivacea)

Sedge Wren (Cistothorus platensis)

Song Sparrow (Melospiza melodia)

Swamp Sparrow (Melospiza georgiana)

Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus

Tennessee Warbler (Oreothlypis peregrina)

Townsend's Warbler (Setophaga townsendi)

Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor

Varied Thrush (Ixoreus naevius

Veery (Catharus fuscescens)

Vesper Sparrow (Pooecetes gramineus)

Warbling Vireo (Vireo gilvus)

White-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichia leucophrys

Western Tanager (Piranga ludoviciana)

Western Wood-Pewee (Contopus sordidulus

Wilson's Warbler (Cardellina pusilla

Winter Wren (Troglodytes hiemalis)

Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina)

White-throated Sparrow (Zonotrichia albicollis)

White-winged Crossbill (Loxia leucoptera

Yellow-bellied Flycatcher (Empidonax flaviventris)

Yellow-rumped Warbler (Setophaga coronata

Yellow-throated Vireo (Vireo flavifrons)

Yellow Warbler (Setophaga petechia

ALFL Current (zip)

AMCR Current (zip)

AMGO Current (zip)

AMPI  Current (zip)

AMRE Current (zip)

AMRO Current (zip)   

ATSP Current (zip)

BAWW Current (zip)

BBWA Current (zip)

BCCH Current (zip)

BHCO Current (zip)

BHVI Current (zip)  

BLBW Current (zip)  

BLJA Current (zip)  

BLPW Current (zip)    

BOCH Current (zip)

BRBL Current (zip)    

BRCR Current (zip)   

BTNW Current (zip)  

CAWA Current (zip)   

CCSP Current (zip)   

CEDW Current (zip)   

CHSP Current (zip)    

CMWA Current (zip)  

COGR Current (zip)    

CONW Current (zip)     

CORA Current (zip)    

CORE Current (zip)    

COYE Current (zip)    

CSWA Current (zip)    

DEJU Current (zip)

EABL Current (zip)

EAKI Current (zip)   

EAPH Current (zip)      

EVGR Current (zip)

FOSP Current (zip)    

GCFL Current (zip)

GCKI Current (zip)    

GCTH Current (zip)    

GRAJ Current (zip)     

HAFL Current (zip)

HETH Current (zip)     

HOLA Current (zip)      

HOWR Current (zip)

INBU Current (zip)

LCSP Current (zip)   

LEFL Current (zip)   

LISP Current (zip)   

MAWA Current (zip)    

MOWA Current (zip)    

NAWA Current (zip)    

NOCA Current (zip)

NOWA Current (zip)   

OCWA Current (zip)   

OSFL Current (zip)   

OVEN Current (zip)     

PAWA Current (zip)     

PHVI Current (zip)    

PIGR Current (zip)     

PISI Current (zip)     

PIWA Current (zip)

PUFI Current (zip)     

RBGR Current (zip)     

RBNU Current (zip)     

RCKI Current (zip)     

REVI Current (zip)      

RUBL Current (zip)

RWBL Current (zip)  

SAVS Current (zip)      

SCTA Current (zip)

SEWR Current (zip)

SOSP Current (zip)     

SWSP Current (zip)    

SWTH Current (zip)     

TEWA Current (zip)     

TOWA Current (zip)

TRES Current (zip)     

VATH Current (zip)     

VEER Current (zip)

VESP Current (zip)     

WAVI Current (zip)    

WCSP Current (zip)     

WETA Current (zip)

WEWP  Current (zip)    

WIWA Current (zip)

WIWR Current (zip)   

WOTH Current (zip)

WTSP Current (zip)    

WWCR Current (zip)    

YBFL Current (zip)    

YRWA Current (zip)     

YTVI Current (zip)

YWAR Current (zip) 

 

ALFL Future (zip)

AMCR Future (zip)    

AMGO Future (zip)

AMPI Future (zip)

AMRE Future (zip)    

AMRO Future (zip)

ATSP Future (zip)    

BAWW Future (zip)

BBWA  Future (zip)   

BCCH Future (zip)    

BHCO Future (zip)

BHVI Future (zip)

BLBW Future (zip)  

BLJA Future (zip)

BLPW Future (zip)   

BOCH Future (zip)   

BRBL Future (zip)    

BRCR Future (zip)   

BTNW Future (zip)   

CAWA Future (zip)   

CCSP Future (zip)   

CEDW Future (zip)  

CHSP Future (zip)   

CMWA Future (zip)  

COGR Future (zip)   

CONW Future (zip)   

CORA Future (zip)   

CORE Future (zip)

COYE Future (zip)

CSWA Future (zip)  

DEJU Future (zip)  

EABL Future (zip)

EAKI Future (zip)  

EAPH Future (zip)    

EVGR Future (zip)

FOSP Future (zip)   

GCFL Future (zip)

GCKI Future (zip)    

GCTH Future (zip)   

GRAJ Future (zip)    

HAFL Future (zip)

HETH Future (zip)

HOLA Future (zip) 

HOWR Future (zip)

INBU Future (zip)

LCSP Future (zip)  

LEFL Future (zip)  

LISP Future (zip)   

MAWA Future (zip)  

MOWA Future (zip)

NAWA Future (zip)   

NOCA Future (zip)

NOWA Future (zip)   

OCWA Future (zip)  

OSFL Future (zip)  

OVEN Future (zip)    

PAWA  Future (zip)  

PHVI Future (zip)   

PIGR Future (zip)  

PISI Future (zip)   

PIWA Future (zip)

PUFI Future (zip)   

RBGR Future (zip)   

RBNU Future (zip)   

RCKI Future (zip)   

REVI Future (zip)   

RUBL Future (zip)   

RWBL Future (zip)  

SAVS Future (zip)   

SCTA Future (zip)

SEWR Future (zip)

SOSP Future (zip)   

SWSP Future (zip)  

SWTH Future (zip)   

TEWA Future (zip)   

TOWA Future (zip)

TRES Future (zip)   

VATH Future (zip)   

VEER Future (zip)

VESP Future (zip)   

WAVI Future (zip)  

WCSP Future (zip)   

WETA Future (zip)   

WEWP Future (zip)   

WIWA Future (zip)

WIWR Future (zip)  

WOTH Future (zip)

WTSP Future (zip)   

WWCR Future (zip)   

YBFL Future (zip)  

YRWA Future (zip)   

YTVI Future (zip)

YWAR Future (zip)